Mitigating the Detrimental Effects of Climate Warming on Major Staple Crop Production Through Adaptive Nitrogen Management: A Meta-Analysis

Crops face vulnerability due to climate change, but the consequences of warming on crop production across diverse environmental conditions need to be better understood. We conducted a global meta-analysis by analyzing 5690 paired observations to understand the warming effects on the production of four major staple crops (wheat, rice, maize, and soybean). Results indicated that a 2.1 °C warming decreases yield for the four crops by 14 %, nitrogen use efficiency by 10 %, and biomass by 4 %. Projections based on future 2 °C warming scenarios indicate that global yields of these four crops could decrease by 17 % across diverse soil conditions and climates, particularly showing greater yield loss in regions with low precipitation and available nitrogen. However, the adverse effects on yield may be alleviated by management measures that improve nitrogen availability such as optimized nitrogen fertilizer inputs and practices that enhance soil nitrogen supply. Our findings underscore the necessity for adapting such practices in crop production systems, particularly in America and China, where adjustments in crop selection, soil management, and fertilizer practices are essential to sustain crop yields and ensure global food security in the forthcoming decades. The appropriate management choice however requires a deeper exploration of the underlying mechanisms behind the observed yield reductions