Donald Trump made a crackdown on illegal immigration a central facet of his campaign—and, for many Americans, framed it in a shockingly aggressive way—but the idea has been circulating in political circles for years. Many studies have been done about the impact of different immigration policy scenarios on the food system, and the findings might shock you.

One of the most comprehensive studies on how immigration policy impacts the food system was commissioned by the American Farm Bureau Federation in 2014. Their report examines several policy scenarios, including what the authors refer to as the “enforcement only” option, which they define as “strengthened border security and…more aggressive use of deportation”—essentially Trump’s plan to date. The Farm Bureau strongly condemned this strategy, recommending instead “an adjustment of status for experienced, but unauthorized, agricultural workers”—in other words, making them legal.

Food Prices Would Go Up

The report found that stemming the flow of undocumented immigrants across the southern border—which currently accounts for between 50 and 70 percent of the agricultural workforce—would cause retail food prices to jump an average of five to six percent, and that “the quantity and variety of grocery store produce would diminish.”