How to Accelerate Advances in Ecological Forecasting

Just as meteorologists routinely predict temperature changes, storm trajectories, and other weather patterns, ecologists also forecast how ecosystems and environmental conditions can change in the near future. These ecological forecasts are rooted in scientific understanding of how natural systems behave and react, providing predictions of the future of ecosystems along with information about associated uncertainties.

Ecological forecasts offer tangible, practical insights. For example, they can estimate grass availability and quality for livestock and predict red tides along a coastline. They can support decisionmaking across society, guiding strategies for managing farms, forests, and fisheries, as well as for monitoring invasive or endangered species, assessing water quality, and implementing nature-based climate solutions. These forecasts can also influence everyday choices, such as when to take allergy medication during pollen season, whether to avoid the beach because of harmful algal blooms, and whether to reconsider a move to an area at risk of wildfires.