Geoengineering: An Incomplete Solution to a Poorly Formulated Problem

This essay won 1st place at the Spring 2022 Chair’s Essay Competition on the topic of: “Why geoengineering to stay under 2 degrees Celsius should be stopped” 

July 15, 2024 | Source: SciencesPo | by Marin Pitavy

In the very recent days, on May 17th, the Climate Overshoot Commission was launched. Its members include former presidents and ministers, who will elaborate a strategy to limit the climate effects of a warmer worldi. Realizing that the sacred threshold of 1.5°C can no longer be met, they are looking for solutions to prepare for the “world after” and decide on our future – and they take a tempting look at geoengineering. But what exactly is it about?

A bit of history

Geoengineering was born out of man’s desire to better understand meteorological events and to influence, if not control, the natural weather elements. This desire to play God was fueled by the promise of “enjoying ages with more equitable and better climates”ii and protecting humanity from a new ice age.

Then, geoengineering soon fell into the hands of the military during the Cold War, as the superpowers actively researched and tested the potential of environmental modification techniques as methods of warfare. “If an unfriendly nation gets into a position to control the large-scale weather patterns before we can, the result could even be more disastrous than nuclear warfare,” warned Howard T. Orville, meteorological advisor to US President Eisenhower in 1958iii.

During the Vietnam War, the United States made extensive use of “cloud-seeding,” a weather modification technique designed to increase precipitation by dispersing silver iodide into clouds. In an attempt to extend the monsoon season and inhibit the movement of North Vietnamese troops, the US Air Force flew 2,600 sorties over Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos between 1967 and 1972. Operation Popeye, as it came to be known, was the first recorded geoengineering program in military history.

Eager to put an end to these hostile uses of climate manipulation, the UN General Assembly approved the Environmental Modification Convention in 1976, thus banning weather warfare. It is enlightening for the future to point out that, although the motivations have changed today, the practical origins of geoengineering are well-grounded in the art of war.