Forecasting the Future of Southern Ocean Ecosystems

Ecosystems in the Southern Ocean, the body of water surrounding Antarctica, are under threat from climate change. The area’s inhabitants, from whales to krill to phytoplankton, face changes such as a loss in sea ice and rising ocean temperatures. If species that are unique to the area, such as the Antarctic toothfish, dwindle in population as a result, this decrease could affect fishery operations and lead to cascading socioeconomic and geopolitical consequences.

Scientists use marine ecosystem models to understand how fragile regions such as the Southern Ocean will respond to the changing climate, as well as to develop management and conservation plans. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) combines results from an ensemble of marine ecosystem models, but it includes relatively few models that focus on the Southern Ocean.