The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, says a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the United States has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oilfields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation’s latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply, to be published overnight.

The outlook is used by many governments to help guide their energy and climate change policies.

In particular, the allegations cast a shadow on the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its present level of 83 million barrels a day to 105 million.

External critics have frequently said this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and that the world has already passed its peak in oil production. Now the ”peak oil” theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment.