Former Gallup Pollster and Founder of Survey Center Unveils Secrets and Shams of Political Polls in New Book

In the 13 years David Moore worked for the Gallup Poll, he learned that media polls are not used to uncover the “will” or thoughts of the public, but rather to manufacture a “public opinion” that grabs the attention of journalists and can be used to fill media news holes.
Now the founder of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and former managing editor of the Gallup Poll draws on first-hand experience as well as the history of modern media polling practices – focusing particularly on the four most influential polls: New York Times/CBS News, Washington Post/ABC News, Pew Research, and USA Today/Gallup – to reveal the inner-workings of pollsters and the cycle of bias that tends to promote the powerful and suppress dissent in his new book “The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls.”

The book, published by Beacon Press, is available in bookstores now.

According to Moore, in the fall of 2007, media pollsters reported a solid lead for Hillary Clinton among Democratic primary candidates and crowned Rudy Giuliani the national Republican frontrunner. Clinton’s lead evaporated in the first contest and Giuliani later dropped out of the race without having won a single delegate.

“Early in the campaign season, pollsters refused to report the simple truth – that the election was wide open. It makes for better headlines to pretend that there are front-runners and under-dogs. They love to show a wildly fluctuating electorate rather than to reflect a far less interesting reality – that months before an election many voters are undecided,” Moore says.

“Media pollsters will do everything they can to beat such an undecided voter into oblivion, so they can begin horserace coverage long before the race track has even opened,” he says.

Analyzing pollsters’ problematic methodology, such as shrinking and skewed samples (for example, the difficulty of reaching a broad base of people on landline phones) and “forced-choice format” in which respondents are forced to pick an answer even if they don’t know or don’t have a strong opinion, Moore reveals how polls distort voters’ election preferences as well as the public’s support for or opposition to government policies. The net result, he says, is that polls give false readings of which candidates voters prefer and what the public wants, which ultimately determines the democratic process.

In his new book, Moore shows how polls create a “legitimacy spin cycle.” Those in power frame an issue to favor their position, while the press limits its coverage of sources that might disagree with the administration. Pollsters, in turn, develop surveys to dovetail with the news stories and the people – many of whom have little idea of what is happening beyond the limited information presented to them by the news media – are pressured into answering questions that reinforce the original position of those in power.

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