A ‘Doom Loop’ of Climate Change and Geopolitical Instability Is Beginning

It is a common refrain to say that geopolitics gets in the way of climate action. From the war in Ukraine to trade tensions, each year seems to bring another immediate priority that diverts focus from the imperative to act on climate change.

This dynamic was on show at the recent UN climate conference – Cop29 – in Azerbaijan. Many world leaders stayed at home, busy handling political crises and conflict. A coalition of nations dependent on fossil fuel exports blocked any mention of phasing out fossil fuels in the final agreement. Long-held divisions between wealthy and climate vulnerable countries were on show in arguments over the final finance agreement.

In many ways, this is business as usual. Climate change is an international problem requiring international cooperation, the possibilities for which are determined by geopolitics. But this year, something more unsettling is emerging: climate change is itself beginning to impact geopolitics.